Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-13 239.403361 291.687476 356.564931 444.422120 562.578340 7.194371e+02 9.495661e+02
2025-07-20 187.191556 250.383383 339.517622 479.668775 705.163594 1.075319e+03 1.782895e+03
2025-07-27 155.665267 222.182031 325.024937 506.146848 843.296775 1.511125e+03 3.171156e+03
2025-08-03 133.043903 199.298484 309.147234 520.876473 966.460377 2.013101e+03 5.410593e+03
2025-08-10 115.404162 179.466864 291.691621 524.541043 1068.865146 2.563572e+03 8.946891e+03
2025-08-17 100.326432 160.545196 270.632458 512.868882 1130.727369 3.077893e+03 1.398609e+04
2025-08-24 88.300872 144.669778 251.446685 498.473643 1178.946243 3.617271e+03 2.176679e+04
2025-08-31 78.558113 131.291141 234.250781 483.051592 1217.317562 4.187127e+03 3.410698e+04
2025-09-07 75.810636 130.517519 242.329526 531.358737 1484.166700 6.229026e+03 9.573722e+04
2025-09-14 70.135861 123.118500 234.737314 536.770178 1613.317568 7.893828e+03 2.260559e+05
2025-09-21 66.214469 118.643653 232.718427 557.130084 1819.601553 1.073700e+04 8.514364e+05
2025-09-28 61.319569 111.483396 223.178003 552.537809 1921.802730 1.320804e+04 3.531010e+06
2025-10-05 59.933304 111.775879 232.019349 610.580038 2392.477354 2.260479e+04 2.433575e+12
2025-10-12 58.128693 110.913737 237.960805 663.092063 2923.081521 3.961020e+04 NaN
2025-10-19 55.858890 108.673793 239.906713 703.296826 3460.071233 6.916503e+04 NaN
2025-10-26 53.137793 105.015960 237.313982 725.854316 3931.035387 1.165405e+05 NaN
2025-11-02 50.148702 100.346994 231.038373 731.479731 4296.368250 1.870008e+05 NaN
2025-11-09 46.785898 94.400377 220.106051 713.528789 4437.615294 2.623768e+05 NaN
2025-11-16 43.656636 88.704535 209.042249 691.469215 4520.607009 3.598417e+05 NaN
2025-11-23 40.802401 83.407785 198.388811 667.930828 4566.013168 4.878798e+05 NaN
2025-11-30 40.573629 84.611354 207.560703 741.983000 5939.362681 2.486597e+06 NaN
2025-12-07 38.818132 81.746160 203.625254 750.336669 6532.096558 8.121011e+06 NaN
2025-12-14 37.657476 80.293509 203.968086 781.868917 7626.013188 1.235685e+08 NaN